Table 3 Parameters at 4 h and their potential to discriminate between potential survivors and non-survivors
Parameter | ROC AUC | 95% CI | p value | Threshold | Sensitivity% | 95% CI | Specificity% | 95% CI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hct (%) | 0.93 | 0.779–1.0 | 0.008 | < 43.5 | 100 | 72–100% | 80 | 28–99% |
Temperature (°C) | 0.57 | 0.166–0.968 | 0.673 | > 38.0 | 60 | 15–95% | 83 | 52–98% |
Lactate (mmol/L) | 0.68 | 0.319–1.0 | 0.257 | > 1.49 | 60 | 15–95% | 100 | 72–100% |
Base excess | 0.56 | 0.264–0.863 | 0.692 | < 2.20 | 80 | 28–99% | 45 | 17–77% |
pH | 0.59 | 0.266–0.916 | 0.571 | > 7.43 | 40 | 5–85% | 82 | 48–98% |
Glucose | 0.80 | 0.554–1.0 | 0.066 | > 15.5 | 60 | 15–95% | 90 | 56–100% |
IL-1a (pg/ml) | 0.58 | 0.237–0.926 | 0.610 | > 57.2 | 40 | 5–85% | 91 | 59–100% |
IL-1b (pg/ml) | 0.56 | 0.194–0.933 | 0.692 | > 244 | 60 | 15–95% | 82 | 48–98% |
IL-6 (pg/ml) | 0.67 | 0.326–1.0 | 0.282 | > 2775 | 60 | 15–95% | 91 | 59–100% |
IL-10 (pg/ml) | 0.60 | 0.217–0.983 | 0.533 | > 538 | 60 | 15–95% | 91 | 59–100% |
TNF-α (pg/ml) | 0.51 | 0.168–0.850 | 0.955 | < 61 | 40 | 5–85% | 82 | 48–98% |
CXCL-1 (pg/ml) | 0.69 | 0.349–1.0 | 0.234 | > 1885 | 80 | 28–99% | 82 | 48–98% |
MCP-1 (pg/ml) | 0.56 | 0.211–0.916 | 0.692 | > 7.4 | 60 | 15–95% | 82 | 48–98% |
MIP-1 (pg/ml) | 0.82 | 0.604–1.0 | 0.047 | > 211 | 60 | 15–95% | 91 | 59–100% |
BNP (pg/ml) | 0.76 | 0.521–1.0 | 0.101 | < 0.15 | 60 | 15–95% | 82 | 48–98% |