Fig. 3
Overall model calibration of the static and dynamic RF models (a) and LR models (b). Top left: smoothed flexible calibration curves. Top right: zoom-in of the calibration curve in the 0–0.2 probability range (grey area). Shaded areas around the curves represent the 95% CIs. Bottom: histogram of the predictions (logscale). Shaded areas around each point in the calibration curves (before smoothing) represent the 95% bootstrap percentile CIs25 (with 1000 bootstrap replications stratified for positive and negative samples). The smooth curves including CIs were estimated by locally weighted scatterplot smoothing (see https://github.com/jimmsmit/COVID-19_EWS for the implementation). a Overall model calibration of the static and dynamic RF models. b Overall model calibration of the static and dynamic LR models